Player comparisons for the top ACC transfers
Duke New Devils, UNC's latest stretch 4, and more
Previously, I put together rules of thumb for adjusting expectations to your team’s new transfers. I developed the scoring ratio to project how a transfer’s production might translate based on his prior scoring and level of competition.
Whereas that post focused on broad buckets of transfers, today I’ll hone in on specific transfers and go more in-depth with statistically calculated player comps (any math nerds can find the details here).
With the benefit of the broad range of the scoring ratio, the specific metrics of the player comparison and some non-stats scouting, we can triangulate how a player might perform.
Scoring Ratio: Only includes scoring but pulls from all the past transfers in the same scoring bucket and conference group (for example, P6 transfers who scored 9-12 ppg)
Player Comp: The single player with the most similar statistical profile across 6 dimensions
Here are projections for some of the most intriguing ACC transfers:
Pat Kelsey’s guards: Terrence Edwards Jr, Chucky Hepburn
Duke New Devils: Mason Gillis, Maliq Brown, Sion James
UNC’s latest Stretch-4: Cade Tyson (plus Ven-Allen Lubin)
New ACC schools: Kevin Miller, Andrej Stojakovic
ACC guards: Jalen Blackmon, Jyare Davis, Dontrez Styles, TJ Power, Bostyn Holt
Pat Kelsey’s Guards
Terrence Edwards Jr [Lville] — Player Comp: Walter Clayton Jr
As we discussed a few posts back, Pat Kelsey’s Lville squad will be uptempo and high scoring, and he’s secured proven guards to lead the charge.
While low mid-major (LMM) to P6 production comes with a huge discount, Edward’s player comp shows more upside. Walter Clayton Jr. jumped from Iona to Florida and actually increased his scoring a scootch. Given the pace of Kelsey’s teams, I figure Edwards’ production to translate well to the ACC.
Prognosis: Leading scorer, a rare exception to the LMM trend
Chucky Hepburn [Lville] — Player Comp: Posh Alexander
Chucky slots into the near one-to-one translation of proven P6 production, and he stuffed the box score beyond just scoring. Surrounded by talented guards in Kelsey’s system, he might increase his production, so I’d set last year’s stats as a floor.
Prognosis: Secondary scorer
UNC’s Latest Stretch 4
Cade Tyson [UNC] — Player Comp: BJ Mack
The general rule for low mid-major transfers is that production does not translate. I’ve already broken my own rules by suggesting Terrence Edwards Jr’s production won’t drop, and I’m not willing to make the exception twice.
UNC has mixed results on the stretch 4 transfers: hit a grand slam with Brady Manek, hit a single at best with Pete Nance, and hit another home run with Harrison Ingram. But all those guys came from P6 programs. Justin Pierce — UNC’s last mid-major stretch 4 — is also a good statistical comp to Tyson, and he dropped from 14.9 ppg to 5.0 ppg, a strikeout compared to the others. Tyson is more naturally a small forward, but with UNC’s loaded backcourt, he’ll likely slide into the 4 surrounded by a 3-guard lineup. Tyson’s comp and projections suggest he can replace some of Ingram’s scoring, but he’ll have to also match Ingram’s gritty D and rebounding to backfill Ingram’s contributions.
Prognosis: Role player at best. Given UNC’s backcourt talent, the Heels need more help rebounding, and Tyson hasn’t shown to be super strong on the boards (5.9 rpg).
Ven-Allen Lubin [UNC] — Player Comp: Arthur Kaluma
While not a stretch 4, Ven-Allen Lubin will attempt to fill a much needed role in Carolina’s front court following Armando Bacot’s graduation. The Heels pursued — and missed on — other bigs to complement the more offensive-minded Jalen Washington and Jae’Lyn Withers. Washington and Withers add a perimeter dimension that Bacot never developed, but neither has the bulk for Bacot’s low-post bully ball. Much like Tyson, Lubin’s biggest contributions won’t be measured in scoring. Hubert Davis will have to hope the three bigs can pitch in to provide the post rebounding and defensive anchor role left by Bacot.
Prognosis: First big off the bench
Duke New Devils
Mason Gillis [Duke] — Player Comp: RJ Melendez
With most of Duke’s roster departing in the draft or portal, Gillis provides much-needed experience to bolster the diaper dandies. Both his scoring ratio and player comp suggest a modest increase in scoring. If Gillis can keep up his high shooting clip (46.8% 3FG), he’ll score on kick-out threes as defenders collapse on all the other talented Blue Devils, much like he did surrounding Zach Edey at Purdue.
With his shooting stroke and stupid tattoos1, he could also be the next Theo John type to turn up the heat on the UNC rivalry.
Prognosis: Experienced 3-and-D, with some “hatable Duke” guy potential
Maliq Brown [Duke] — Player Comp: Garrison Brooks
Again, the proven P6 contributions translate well. Brown’s player comp, Garrison Brooks, should be familiar to Duke fans. A steady anchor in the post — similar to Brook’s UNC role — should be all the Dukies need from Brown on a team stacked with top-end talent.
Prognosis: Role player
Sion James [Duke] — Player Comp: Jaren Holmes
Unlike Gillis and Brown, James is making the jump from a mid-major, which comes with a production decline. He also doesn’t fit as cleanly into a role as Gillis and Brown, as Duke is already loaded with wing and backcourt talent, so I’d anchor to the low case scenario. One of Duke’s downfalls last year was a lack of depth, so James could provide the occasional scoring jolt off the bench.
Prognosis: Bench player
New ACC Schools
Kevin Miller [SMU] — Player Comp: Charlie Moore
Boopie is Andy Enfield’s biggest transfer score so far (see my Enfield predictions here). His player comp is a former ACC transfer that made waves. Miller played a secondary scoring role to Hunter Sallis at Wake and projects to a similar role at SMU. But given Miller’s experience in the ACC and the lack of other P6 talent on SMU, Miller could make the leap to leading scoring.
Prognosis: Secondary scorer, with some leading scorer upside
Andrej Stojakovic [Cal] — Player Comp: Ismael Massoud
Peja’s son left the flailing Stanford2 program for the Bay Area rival. Andrej, his dad, and his player comp all share a sweet shooting stroke for bigger dudes. Peja hit clutch 3s playing for the Sacramento Kings, and Massoud hit the go-ahead 3 to send K State to the Sweet 16. With Cal rebuilding, Andrej won’t get the opportunity for similar big-moment shots. And he’ll be counted on as a primary scoring option, but his comp and projections indicate that might be too large a burden for him to shoulder.
Prognosis: Secondary scorer
ACC Guards
Jalen Blackmon [Miami] — Player Comp: Denver Jones
Stop me if you’ve heard this one, but low mid-major production falls off a cliff when jumping to P6. Blackmon’s high scoring (21.3 ppg) puts him in a rare category: only 4 other players have scored 21+ ppg and made the leap, so there’s not as much data to inform the projections. But all the data — and his player comp, Denver Jones — suggest a complementary role player rather than a leading scorer.
Prognosis: Secondary scorer. Even as a ball-dominant guard at Stetson, Blackmon never put big assist numbers (1.89 apg). Paired with Nijel Pack, who’s a sharpshooter rather than a pure PG3, Miami might be lacking a facilitator.
Jyare Davis [Syracuse] — Player Comp: Naz Bohannon
Syracuse always seems to have a dude who can get a bucket when the offense stalls — the Frank Howard and Judah Mintz types. Davis put up big numbers at Delaware, but the Orange relying on him as the offensive floatation devise is liking a sinking strategy. Davis’ player comp also made the jump to the ACC and couldn’t keep up the scoring, so Davis projects as a complementary scorer at best.
Prognosis: Complementary scorer
Dontrez Styles [NC State] — Player Comp: Emmitt Matthews Jr
Styles could end up being the archetype for two of my transfer rules of thumb. After transferring as a low contributor from UNC, Styles established himself as a high contributor on a P6 team (granted, Georgetown was awful). Now he’s boomeranging back to the ACC (but in the wrong color4). His projections suggest a slight scoring dip, but he might be asked to fill the void left by DJ Burns and DJ Horne.
Prognosis: Secondary scorer
TJ Power [UVA] — Player Comp: Tyler Nickel
Power’s comp is more than just a statistical match: Both are intra-ACC transfers known for their shooting who left a blue blood in search of more playing time. Nickel shows why the low-contributing P6 players can have huge scoring ratios. His minutes and scoring jumped more than 4x, but he was still only a contributing role player (and he’s in the portal again). Scoring is a glaring need for the Hoos, but spot-up shooting was not a deficiency for UVA. Power will have to show an offensive game beyond shooting lest he become a redundancy to Isaac McKneely.
Prognosis: Contributing role player
Bostyn Holt [FSU] — Player Comp: Sir’Jabari Rice
FSU is in an unenviable competition with Duke for the highest amount of talent to walk out the door following last season. At least Duke is reloading with recruits and transfers (see above). Holt and Justin Thomas are the biggest portal additions for the Seminoles, and Holt projects as a role player at best. In addition to having an awesome name, Sir’Jabari Rice was a revelation at Texas, bucking the usual trend of mid major to P6 declines. Even in the unlikely case that Holt can match Rice’s production, FSU will have remaining gaps.
Prognosis: Role player
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In researching this post, I learned that Gillis’ barbed-wire looking left shoulder tat is actually a rosary. So I was ready to backtrack on my dumb tattoo stance, but then he admits that he didn’t know the rosary was a Catholic thing. So I’m sticking with my original take that his tattoos are bad.
Though Nijel Pack did lead Miami in assists last year
As a UNC fan, I have mostly fond memories of Styles and wish he got more of a chance. His overtime 3 against Baylor is usually an afterthought in the 2022 Final Four run, but he saved us from an absolute collapse that game