A common April news flash: “one of the hottest potential coaching targets this offseason” is moving up the ranks after “he guided his [team] on an unprecedented run” in the tournament.
Those quotes could easily be from recent articles lauding Dusty May, the latest must-have coaching candidate that landed at Michigan after reported courting from Louisville. But the quotes are actually from 2013 and refer to then-must-have Andy Enfield, who signed with SMU1 after an unremarkable 11-year stint at USC2.
Both coaches took unheralded Florida schools on fun tourney runs. Michigan fans better hope the parallels end there, as Enfield proved the trajectory of the “next big thing” can often result in another average P6 coach. Today I’ll cover:
Did the ACC lose by missing on May?
What to expect from Enfield at SMU
What to expect from Pat Kelsey at Louisville
What to expect from Kyle Smith at Stanford3
Did Louisville (and the ACC) lose by missing on May?
No, the hype usually doesn’t pan out.
May was one blown call away from a first-round exit and continued anonymity. On the flip side, he was also one buzzer beater away from making a national championship game. Such is March.
May could prove to be a wonderful and successful Big 10 coach, but the Big 10 is loaded with strong programs. Purdue has its endless stock of giants, Illinois is competitive, Wisconsin is competitive, Michigan State still has Izzo. Add in a blue blood in UCLA and a strong Oregon program. Making noise in a crowded Big 10 will be difficult. I’d bet on a few tough years for May.
Had May come to Louisville, he might have faced a slightly less loaded conference, but the Louisville program is in shambles, so it’s impossible to say whether he’d face an easier path. The portal allows for quick rebuilds, but the success can be fleeting. Danny Sprinkle at Utah State (now Washington) proved you can flip a depleted roster in a single season. But one year of success is different than sustained, program-building success (subtweet @NC State).
In five seasons at Alabama, Nate Oats has already made a Final Four and two Sweet 16s, so new coaches can have success in tough conferences. However, assuming success for a coach stepping up in competition is misguided — just look at Enfield’s results below.
Comparing May and Enfield’s resumes, May’s experience is at higher-level mid-major conference and he had a deeper run than Enfield. While a Final Four run is undoubtedly more impressive than a Sweet 16 run, Enfield’s FGCU team beat a higher seed (2 Georgetown) than any of FAU’s opponents (although FAU did beat a 3 and 4 seed). FGCU was the first 15 seed to make the second weekend (since repeated by Oral Roberts, Princeton and St. Peter’s).
Regardless of whose run was more impressive, May secured the big-time job and big-time payday. The portal means he can more quickly reload his roster compared to Enfield’s start at USC, and he’s already had an impressive transfer haul headlined by Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf (subscribe for upcoming posts on transfer production). But it also means the pressure to perform will be more immediate.
Without knowing any financial details4, May choosing Michigan feels more like a comment on the state of Lville basketball, but Cards fans might look back in 5 years and be glad they took a strike on their big swing. Plus, the ACC got the older model of Dusty May in Andy Enfield — only a decade removed from his own hype train — so all is not lost?
What to expect from Enfield at SMU
In terms of results, nothing special or spectacular, verging on mediocre.
In terms of style, also nothing that stands out. His USC teams didn’t consistently spike in one area. When Enfield started at USC, pundits touted the potential for a college version of “showtime” LA basketball. But the reality of his USC squads was more slowdown than showtime.
The Dunk City team that vaulted Enfield to national relevance was high-flying, throwing endless alley oops. In a word, they were fun. The same does not typify Enfield’s 11-year tenure at USC. The best versions of his team played slower and prioritized defense, playing like a slightly sped-up Virginia team.
In his first few years leading the Trojans, he had fast-paced, higher scoring teams that didn’t have much success, with a combined 44-54 record. The record improved in his later years, but he only had one successful tournament run (an Elite 8 in 2021) to show for it.5
The pedestrian results were not due to a lack of recruiting. Enfield brought plenty of talent to LA: three straight top 10 recruiting classes, six draft picks, two lottery picks (not counting wherever Isaiah Collier gets drafted this year), plus Bronny James.
Florida State6 is the closest approximation when comparing Enfield’s USC average stats to last year’s crop of ACC teams. That Florida State team finished 17-16 (10-10 in the ACC), which is the exact level of success I expect from Enfield’s early years at SMU.
The silver lining is that Enfield showed a willingness to tailor his style and pace to his personnel, which is paramount in the fluid portal world. The biggest question will be the talent level he can attract to Dallas. SMU’s deep donor pool seems primed to pump money to make athletics competitive in the ACC, but so far, Wake transfer Boopie Miller has been the biggest addition. In the coming weeks, I’ll have more detailed posts about the transfer portal additions for each ACC team.
Enfield mentioned he joined SMU because he wanted to coach in the ACC. He might have just been gassing up his new conference. Or maybe he meant that ACC basketball is very soft in the middle, making it easier for him to have moderate success.
BC, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech and Florida State aren’t very scary (not to mention Louisville, more on them below). Miami is hard to figure out, Georgia Tech seems to be trending in the right direction. Fellow newcomers Cal and Stanford haven’t been formidable. Surely enough of those teams will be bad, saving SMU from becoming a bottom dweller as Enfield and the Mustangs make the jump.
What to expect from Pat Kelsey at Lville
Kelsey will be the new coach bringing fun and scoring to the ACC. Apart from a few slow years to start his Winthrop tenure, Kelsey’s team averaged 27th in the nation in tempo and twice ranked in the top 10 in scoring.
Runnin’ and gunnin’ might be easier in the Big South and Colonial, so Kelsey will have to recruit the athletes to keep up in the ACC. He’s already scored a few splashy transfers in JMU’s Terrence Edwards Jr. and Wisconsin’s Chucky Hepburn (subscribe for upcoming posts on transfer production).
In his first P6 job, Kelsey will have to deal with higher expectations, and he has a relatively thin track record. He’s made four NCAA tournaments (two each at Winthrop and Charleston) but is yet to win a tournament game.
Luckily, for the dumpster fire that is Louisville basketball, even a tourney bid would be a welcomed accomplishment. Lville is on their fourth coach since Rick Pitino, haven’t made a tourney since 2019, have had three consecutive sub-500 seasons and have a total of 12 wins (and 5 ACC wins) the past two seasons. Yikes.
Given the complete roster overhaul and Kelsey’s jump to the big leagues, I expect Lville to remain in the bottom half of the league next season. But if he can load up on portal talent and keep to his playing style, I expect Lville to rise toward the top of the ACC faster than Enfield’s SMU teams. And the ride should be more fun to watch, too.
What to expect from Kyle Smith at Stanford
For ACC fans unacquainted with our cross-country pals, Cal and Stanford are rivals. The Cal and Stanford coaching positions bring fun and petty drama.
Languishing in mediocrity for several years, Stanford opted to bring back Jerod Haase at the beginning of last year rather than sign Stanford grad and coaching upstart Mark “Mad Dog” Madsen7. Instead, Madsen went across town to Cal and has started turning that program around.
After a 14-18 season, Stanford fired Haase and hired Kyle Smith from Wazzou but still has to watch as Madsen builds the rival Cal program8. Juicy stuff.
Anyways, Smith has only one tourney bid, an unexpected one last year after Wazzou was picked 10th in the Pac-12. Similar to Enfield, Smith’s teams9 haven’t stood out much but generally prioritized defense and played at slow paces. Relative to Enfield, Smith’s squads are worse on O, better on D and even slower.
Unlike other coaches who have brought players with them via the portal10, Wazzou’s transfers have gone elsewhere. And Stanford’s roster has had its most talented players leave.
Stanford struggled to keep up in the Pac-12, generally regarded as a worse conference than the ACC. Strip away Stanford’s most talented players in the portal, add in basically no new talent, and you have a recipe for a bad introduction to ACC basketball. I expect Stanford to be in the bottom three of the ACC.
Subscribe for upcoming posts11:
Rules of thumb for assessing new transfers
Player comps for the nation’s top transfers
Player comps for the ACC’s top transfers
Introduction to SMU, Stanford and Cal for long-time ACC fans
Introduction to the ACC for newcomers
If you’re like me, you’re still getting used to the notion of SMU in the ACC. But fear not, as I’ll have introductions to the ACC for all the newcomers later this summer
There’s only one USC and it’s in Southern California. There’s also only one Carolina and it’s the North one. Sorry, Gamecocks
Same for Stanford, still getting used to them in the ACC. See footnote 1 above
May’s reported Michigan salary is $3.75M, while Kelsey’s is reportedly $2.3M.
An Elite 8 is a success even for a blue blood
Florida State’s 2024 stats: 76.5 PPG, 76.3 OPPG, 90 AdjO, 75 AdjD, 33 AdjT
Madsen was the Utah Valley coach at the time
Madsen landed Stanford transfer Andrej Stojakovic, for example
Smith also coached 6 seasons at Columbia with a 101–82 record
For example, Coach Cal (Big Z), Darian DeVries (Tucker DeVries), Josh Schertz (Robbie Avila)