Sorry, you don't have the next Dalton Knecht

Rules of thumb for assessing your team's new transfer additions

With March Madness over, the coaching carousel slowing down and real games months away, the dizzying moves of the transfer portal as our only solace during these baseball-filled months. Tinkering with our imaginary line-ups and watching highlights of the newcomers eases the pain of last season, replacing it with the seeds of hope for next season.

Unfortunately, I’m here to dampen — or at least add realism — to those hopes. I seek to calibrate your expectations for your transfers, and the overarching message is prepare for the base case, don’t assume you have the exception.

The portal has surpassed high school recruiting as the best way to add ready talent, and it’s more than journeymen role players. Of the 15 players on the AP’s All-American teams, 10 transferred at least once during their careers, and 6 of those transferred from mid-majors¹.

While the talent is there, I’ll start by saying that you definitely don’t have the next Dalton Knecht. The unheralded transfer became an All-American, a likely lottery pick and nearly a March legend when he attempted to slay the Edey giant singlehandedly. But you don’t have the next Knecht because there likely won’t be another low mid-major to All-American player.

Whether you’re eyeing your latest addition from another Power 6 school or from Small School State Tech University, here are my rules of thumb:

• If the player was a non-contributor on another P6 team, they’ll likely contribute a little bit, with an outside chance of contributing a lot more

• If the player was a contributor on another P6 team, you can mostly port over their stats 1-to-1

• If the player is coming from a mid-major, you have to discount their production by 25-50%

Transfer Scoring Ratio (and other math)

I’m seeking to answer the transfer production question with a fairly simple metric I’m calling the transfer scoring ratio. Intuitively, the most important factors for predicting transfer success are: 1) where did they come from and 2) how much did they produce there? By looking at past transfers with similar profiles, we can plug the ratio into this easy equation:

Next Season Scoring = Last Season Scoring * Scoring Ratio

For example, if a player scored 10 ppg last season and we find his scoring ratio is 0.7, then we’d expect him to score ~7 ppg this upcoming season.

We calculate the scoring ratios by comparing past transfers’ pre-transfer season to their post-transfer season:

Scoring Ratio = Post-Transfer Scoring / Pre-Transfer Scoring 

A ratio of 1 means they scored the same. Above 1 means more scoring, and lower than 1 means a drop in scoring.

This analysis is based on 2.3k transfers over the past four seasons. It focuses on scoring — as the most salient stat — but in future posts, I’ll use more advanced analytics and a wider range of stats to find the “most similar transfer” for some big-name players (subscribe below to receive the post).

See here for details on the scoring ratio and player comparisons.

Low Contributing P6

I’m defining “low contributors” as any players scoring less than 6 ppg. Scoring obviously doesn’t capture all the ways to contribute: take Seth Trimble’s lockdown defense for UNC, for example. But the fact Trimble entered the portal² is emblematic of the role players seeking bigger offensive opportunities in the portal.

As the table below shows, almost 80% of low contributors end up scoring more at their new schools. However, these players are starting from a low baseline, so the absolute contribution might not be huge. While doubling your scoring from, say, 2 ppg to 4 ppg is an improvement, it might not push your new team over the edge.

But P6 guys were at P6 schools for a reason: they’re talented and highly recruited out of high school, so some are able to break out on their new teams.

• Base Case: Contributing role player

  • Recent Example: Joey Baker (4.5 ppg to 5.7 ppg)

• Low Case: Non-contributor

  • Recent Example: Kerwin Walton (3.4 ppg to 3.6 ppg)

• High Case: High-contributing role player

  • Recent Example: Mo Diarra (3.2 ppg to 6.3 ppg)

• Best Case: Legit scorer

  • Recent Example: Dontrez Styles³ (1.4 ppg to 12.8 ppg)

Rule of Thumb: These players are almost all upside. You might get exactly what they were before, but there’s a ~25% chance they become the complementary or leading scorer your team needs

High Contributing P6

The only transfer production that consistently translates is a proven P6 player moving to another P6 program. The table shows that some productive players see their scoring drop off a bit, but P6 transfers don’t come with the variance and decline we see from mid-major transfers (as we’ll explore below).

• Base Case: High-contributing role player

  • Recent Example: Brady Manek⁴ (10.8 ppg to 15.1 ppg)

• Low Case: Contributing role player

  • Recent Example: DJ Rodman (9.6 ppg to 8.4 ppg)

• High Case: Leading scorer

  • Recent Example: DJ Horne (12.5 ppg to 16.9 ppg)

• Best Case: All-American

  • Recent Example: Caleb Love (16.7 ppg to 18.0 ppg)

Rule of Thumb: Players that have shown they can produce against the best competition are the most likely to do it again at their new schools.

Mid-Major to P6

Mid-major transfers are where things get shaky. I’ll start by splitting mid-majors into two broad groups since not all mid-majors conferences are created equal:

• “High” mid-majors (HMM): Any conference with multiple bids in the last 5 tournaments. The American, MWC, WCC, A10 are no-brainer additions here. The MVC and OVC both qualify but feel like the middle ground

• “Low” mid-majors (LMM): Any single-bid conference

High Mid-Majors

Even from the strongest mid-majors, expect a modest downturn.

• Base Case: Role player

  • Recent Example: Lance Jones (13.8 ppg to 11.7 ppg)

• Low Case: Low-contributing role player

  • Recent Example: Jamille Reynolds (10.1 ppg to 5.5 ppg)

• High Case: Secondary scorer

  • Recent Example: Khalif Battle (18.0 ppg to 14.8 ppg)

• Best Case: Leading scorer

  • Recent Example: Hunter Sallis (4.5 ppg to 18.0 ppg)

The consistency of the drop is striking, as well. Across the scoring spectrum, the low case (p25) and base case (median) have similar declines.

Rule of Thumb: Expect a sizable downturn. The very best high mid-major transfers will be able to compete and maintain their production. But in ~80% of cases, production will drop, and in 25% of cases, it will drop off a cliff. Sorting out the very best from the falling rest is no easy task since production drops across the scoring grid.

Low Mid-Majors

Low mid-major production comes at an even steeper discount (nearly 50%), so expect a low contributor.

• Base Case: Role player

  • Recent Example: Jordan Gainey (15.2 ppg to 6.8 ppg)

• Low Case: Non-contributor

  • Recent Example: Daniel Oladapo (12.9 ppg to 3.3 ppg)

• High Case: Secondary scorer

  • Recent Example: DJ Burns (15.0 ppg to 12.5 ppg)

• Best Case: Legit scorer

  • Recent Example: Walter Clayton Jr. (16.8 ppg to 17.6 ppg)

I refuse to label Knecht as the Best Case here. As we’ll see below, Knecht basically breaks the chart for low mid-major to P6 ascension. Knecht’s Tennessee teammate Jordan Gainey offers a more realistic benchmark: after scoring 15+ ppg at South Carolina-Upstate, his scoring dropped by more than half to 6.8 ppg.

The absolute best case is the players adjust and develop — but over the course of a few seasons. That’s the path Mark Sears, Baylor Scheierman and Johni Broome took to become All-Americans, but even those studs had healthy drops in year 1 of P6 play. Plus, the end of the Covid fifth year means transfers have one fewer season to establish themselves.

Again, the intuition around change in competition is proven out. Compared to the HMM ratios, the LMM ratios are lower across the scoring grid. Producing at a school like Saint Mary’s (Aidan Mahaney) is different than producing at a school like Stetson (Jalen Blackmon) when trying to make the jump.

Rule of Thumb: Don’t expect much, and don’t fall in love with the high-profile stories. The rule is a sizable downturn, so expecting the exception is a fool’s errand.

Knecht was off the charts

Knecht is the poster child for transfer benefits. Plucked from anonymity, escaping the cow-pie, meat-packing smell of Greeley, Colorado and turning the opportunity into the sweet smell of an NBA payday.

Only one other player (Xavier’s Quincy Olivari) was able to score as much at his new P6 school after leaving a low mid-major scoring 18+ ppg.

This chart show each LMM to P6 transfer’s scoring before and after the jump. Any player near the dotted line scored about the same. Anyone above the line scored more, and anyone below the line scored less.

There are only a handful of players above the line across the full scoring spectrum. Looking at the group that scored ~20 ppg at their mid-major school, they’re scattered all over.

Some stayed in the 15-17 ppg range, some were able to maintain double digits, and others dropped to fewer than 5 ppg. Only Knecht was able to produce at such high levels against the toughest competition.

As a tease to next post’s player comps and projections, here is what we might have expected from Knecht prior to his breakout:

By scoring nearly 10 ppg above his projections, Knecht surpassed all reasonable expectations, so don’t go banking on the same for your new transfer.

Gaps and Limitations

This analysis collapses all the valid, non-production reasons to transfer to a single metric. Coaching changes, playing styles, roster construction, injuries, a chance to play in March Madness, greater exposure, more NIL opportunities, being closer to home are just the beginning of the list of reasons why a player might transfer.

Defining a “successful” transfer only through the lens of production discredits a lot of the motivation. And the single scoring metric is blind to all the other ways a player can contribute. So this analysis is targeted toward fans and how to handicap your new additions to adjust expectations for transfers.

This analysis also only considers the season directly after changing teams. Of the 6 All-Americans who transferred from mid-majors, only Knecht won the honor immediately, and as we explained above, he’s a transfer unicorn. The others developed and improved on their new teams over the course of several seasons, and that upside isn’t captured here.

AP Photo/George Walker IV via WATE

1. See the AP All-Americans in this table

2. Before deciding to come back, thank goodness

3. I’m sad to see Styles turn to the red side. See next post examining his projections for the Pack

4. An all-time ACCtin’ A Fool favorite. BANG BANG MF!