UNC Basketball Season Preview
The biggest questions for the Heels
Last year, UNC over-performed preseason expectations by securing a one seed but under-performed that seed by falling to Bama in the Sweet 16. This team brings back a lot of talent (namely RJ Davis) and added some more (two McDonald’s All-Americans) but has some open questions that I’ll sketch out below. Overall, I think the preseason top-10 ranking is fair given the mix of talent and uncertainty, and I’ll put our baseline at the blood blue average: another Sweet 16.
The defining questions for UNC’s season:
Can the bigs collectively replace Armando Bacot?
How do the Heels shoot and defend the 3?
How do Ian Jackson and Drake Powell progress?
Will Hubert play four-guard line-ups?
How will Hubert develop the bench?
Can Hubert’s Xs-and-Os push the team over the hump?
Can the bigs collectively replace Armando Bacot?
This question looms the largest over UNC’s season. Mando leaves massive production gaps, both in rebounding and as a defensive anchor. While he was never the lanky, swatting rim protector type, his hedging on ball screens, size down low and rebound vacuuming keyed the Heels’ defense.
Jalen Washington and Jae’Lyn Withers lack Mando’s bulk, and they seem to be daydreaming about jacking 3s on the offensive end rather than moving their feet on defense. Ven-Allen Lubin can provide the bulk but will be a touch undersized (6’8’’) for any true fives. In their early season tests, UNC has struggled with talented bigs. KU’s Hunter Dickinson had 20 pts, 10 reb and shot 9 FTs, getting almost every UNC big in foul trouble. Auburn’s Johni Broome had 23 pts and 19 reb, producing more than Carolina’s bigs combined (22 pts, 18 rebs).
On offense, Washington can stretch the floor in ways Mando couldn’t, which can open up driving and cutting lanes. I’d like to see Withers never take another YOLO jumper again, please. As college basketball has become more perimeter oriented, the traditional two-big UNC system has morphed into a big-and-stretch-four system. The most successful UNC teams of recent years have had reliable bigs: Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks, Bacot. And Brady Manek was the perfect stretch-four complement. This year, UNC will have to buck the trend and be more guard dominant.
How do the Heels shoot and defend the 3?
Elliot Cadeau reportedly put in a lot of work on his jumper, and the results so far have been promising (4-10 after 18.9% last year). Against Kansas, RJ (1-7) and the team (7-23) struggled for 3. Losing Armando Bacot’s paint scoring (more above) takes away a consistent source of easy buckets, and the Heels can’t try to fill that gap by hucking 3s. EC’s penetrating drives, RJ’s floaters and midrange game and Seth’s acrobatics need to be prioritized over falling in love with the 3.
Over the past few seasons, UNC teams have been all over the place, ranking as high as 68th in 3FG% and as low as 329th. RJ is a reliable shooter but puts up too many shots to remain efficient, Cade Tyson is unproven and the freshmen haven’t settled in. If this team plans to live or die by the 3, they’ll likely end up dead, so UNC should attempt more in the 17-18 3FG per game rather than the 22-23 range.
On the defensive end, UNC cracked the top 100 in 3FG% for the first time since 2015, when they ranked 14th. In past years, Carolina’s 3-point defense has consistently been in the 200s. I’m more concerned that scoring in the paint will be so easy that teams don’t even bother to kick out for 3s. But some swarming, ball-pressure lineups (say, a four-guard lineup?) could run opponents off the 3-point line.
How do Ian Jackson and Drake Powell progress?
The early returns have been mixed, but the operative word is “early,” as there’s plenty of time for them to get comfortable. With the Zions and Cooper Flaggs of the world, fans can forget that most freshmen don’t come in an make an immediate impact, much less dominate. Luckily, the freshmen won’t be relied upon for too much. Between the two of them, if Carolina can get a reliable shooter, a second unit scoring option and a decent defender, that could be enough to round out this team.
Will Hubert play four-guard line-ups?
Our top five players might all be guards: RJ Davis, Elliott Cadeau, Seth Trimble, Ian Jackson, Drake Powell. Each brings something different to the lineup, so substitutions will carry inherent trade-offs.
While any four-guard lineups are dependent on the freshmen coming along (see above), a small-ball approach could be lethal on offense. RJ can score, EC can create, Seth’s offensive game has expanded and the freshmen can offer splashy shooting and springy cutting. The issue with the small-ball lineup would be defense, as only Trimble is better than average (although he’s exceptional) and our guards are generally small to begin with.
However, paint defense will be a concern no matter who’s playing the five, so swapping Drake Powell — who’s already displayed some highlight swatting ability — for Cade Tyson or Jae’Lyn Withers might not be a huge drop.
How will Hubert develop the bench?
One of the few knocks on Hubert so far would be his bench development (and Xs-n-Os, see below). The Iron 5 was famously thin, which might’ve been the difference in the national championship game. Dontrez Style, D’Marco Dunn and Tyler Nickel were never given much of chance to play. Especially in the portal era, when disgruntled players can simply leave, giving adequate playing time is crucial to retaining talent.
This team could require Hubert to go nine deep: RJ and EC will play a lot; Seth is the most reliable perimeter defender; the three bigs acting as Mando-by-committee; the freshmen need experience; and Cade Tyson . Tyson and whichever freshman struggles more are the most likely to get squeezed out of the rotation. Tyson can earn minutes with his shooting and pitching in on the boards as the stretch-four. Developing the McDonald’s All-American talent enough to ensure they stick around (assuming they don’t enter a loaded draft) will be the biggest investment.
Can Hubert’s Xs-and-Os push the team over the hump?
In my mind, Roy Williams was never a great in-game, Xs-and-Os coach, at least relative to other top-tier coaches (just see his timeout usage). His genius was instilling a system of principles — the secondary break, offensive rebounding — and allowing his players to create within that system. But in close games, coaches can elevate their teams by scheming up an after-timeout play to create mismatches and generate easy buckets.
So far in his career, Hubert has successfully maintained the system and principles of UNC basketball, but he also hasn’t displayed the penchant for late-game and ATO winners. The most famous late-game heroics of his tenure (Caleb Love’s Coach-K-ending dagger) was a simple switch and looong 3. Other times, like Withers’ late shot against Bama and the recent game at Kanas, UNC isn’t able to get a desirable shot off. Hubert doesn’t need to become a masterful tactician for UNC to have a great season, but even one play could get this team past the Sweet 16 hill they stalled on last year.
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