SMU shows Coastal Chaos isn't bound by geography
And this week's elimination game
On Saturday, SMU had a -6 turnover margin against Duke. With 3 seconds left and the score tied, Duke lined up a 30-yard FG attempt. Knowing nothing else about the game, those two notes would lead you to predict that Duke won 90-99%1 of the time.
Instead, newcomer SMU added a Texas-sized heaping of Coastal Chaos to the game and ACC race. Duke missed an extra point and a 42-yard FG. The last-second FG attempt was blocked to send the game to OT. After the teams traded touchdowns in OT, Duke went for 2 — and the win, maybe because of the kicking woes2 — and missed it, effectively ending their ACC title game hopes and bolstering SMU’s.
Monte vs Mo
We’ve reached the halfway3 point of conference play, and the model4 thinks there’s a three-way deadlock for ACC champs. Obviously, only one team can win it, and there are realistically four to five contending teams. Later this week, I’ll recap the ACC at the midpoint, including deep dives on the main contenders.
For the rest of the league, there’s still plenty of rivalries, bowl eligibility and coaching hot seats to play for. Starting with the vibes:
The Vibes
Duke: 🔽 Just read the opening above
Syracuse: 🔽🔽🔽 That’s three “bad vibes” arrows because Kyle McCord threw THREE pick-6s (and FIVE total interceptions) in Thursday’s drubbing at Pitt
Pitt: 🔼 Pitt kept pace in the four-team undefeated race. Two of their next three games are against SMU and Clemson, so they can secure their spot in the ACC Championship game by knocking off two of the other undefeateds
UNC: 🔼 In their first game since Tylee Craft’s passing, the Heels notched their first ACC win and snapped a four-game losing streak, capped by an 84-yard pick-6 by a 290 lb D lineman
Cal: 🔼 Not an ACC win, but Cal crushed a former Pac-12 foe to break their own four-game losing streak
Miami: 🔼 Given Miami had the worst defense in the conference heading into the week, FSU (2nd lowest offensive PPG) offered the perfect get-right game. Cam Ward showed the depth of his bag, catching a TD pass
Virginia Tech: 🔼 Not to be outdone by his cousin Cam Ward, Kyron Drones caught a TD pass to go with a TD throw and TD and run
Lville: 🔼 Facing a 20-point deficit the week after a crushing defeat, Lville could’ve quit. Instead, they came back to beat BC (on a Friday)
Home Teams: ➡️ 3-4 last week, bringing the season totals to 17-20
The Model
The model sees a three-way deadlock between Clemson, Miami and SMU, but only two of them can make the title game. Pitt, the fourth undefeated team, is very much discounted because of their tough schedule. Virginia Tech is still alive, as well. Later this week, I’ll break down the paths to the title game for those five contenders.
Week 10 Preview
Pitt dominated their de-facto elimination game against Cuse. This week, they have another elimination game against SMU, which will guarantee to tag an L on one of the four remaining undefeated teams. In other games, Clemson faces a tough test, and we’ll see if FSU sets (or merely ties) their worst-ever ACC record.
VT @ Cuse
Model Favorite: VT (71.1%)
Vegas Line: VT -4
UNC @ FSU
Model Favorite: FSU (68.4%)
Vegas Line: UNC -2.5
Duke @ Miami
Model Favorite: Miami (66.5%)
Vegas Line: Miami -20
Lville @ Clemson
Model Favorite: Clemson (73.2%)
Vegas Line: Clemson -10.5
Stanford @ NC State
Model Favorite: NC State (86.5%)
Vegas Line: NC State -9.5
Pitt @ SMU
Model Favorite: SMU (79.4%)
Vegas Line: SMU -7.5
Teams with a -6 TO margin had been 1-124 (.008) this century (as noted by this tweet). ESPN’s win probability had Duke at 90.6% before their last-second FG attempt
38 of the 69 games are completed, so technically a tad past halfway
For new folks, Monte refers to my ACC model projecting who’ll win the conference, while Mo is the vibes-based “Uncle Mo” Momentum