The U needs some D
And another team drops from ACC title contention
The Miami and Louisville football teams staged a touching memento to Tony Bennett’s coaching career, posting a 52-45 score that would make Coach Bennett proud. Of course, this was no plodding, boring, defensive UVA basketball game, but a wild, high-scoring football game.
Louisville — needing a win to keep its ACC title hopes alive — played all their cards, including multiple fourth down attempts, a fake punt and trick plays, in an effort to pull the upset. But Miami benefitted from another 50/50 call when a Cam Ward fumble that resulted in a game-tying scoop-n-score late in the fourth was overturned1 to an incomplete pass.
With Lville’s loss, the model has whittled down to three contenders for the ACC title. Miami has a 26% chance, but an ACC title and guaranteed CFP bye will require improvements on defense.
The Canes have the worst points-per-game D in the conference, allowing 39 ppg2. Of course, they’re still 3-0 in conference games, as Cam Ward and lucky breaks help erase a leaky D. But that gameplan might not be sustainable for an entire season.
Monte vs Mo
A few weeks into conference play, we’re starting to see a clear separation between the contenders and bottom-dwellers. Starting with Uncle Mo3:
The Vibes
Clemson: 🔼 After limping to a 3-point offensive output in the season opener against UGA, Clemson’s ACC scoring has been: 59, 40, 29, 49, 48 (not to mention 66 against App State). They’re the number one scoring offense in the ACC
Duke: 🔼 The Blue Devils won their first ever game against FSU (on Friday), ending a 0-22 streak
NC State: 🔼 The Pack got their first ACC win of the season
Lville: 🔽 A promising season and winnable game slipped away against the Canes
Cal: 🔽🔽🔽 Another maddeningly close defeat, this time with a 13-point lead entering the fourth. That’s now four conference losses by a total of nine points
FSU: 🔽🔽🔽🔽 This might not be rock bottom, but rock bottom is in sight. The Noles’ worst-ever ACC record was 2-6 (in 2020 under Mike Norvell). I’d pencil in this week’s Miami game as an L, meaning FSU needs to beat a beatable UNC team to match that ineptitude. Unless FSU runs the table, they’ll miss a bowl for the third time in Norvell’s five seasons
Home Teams: ➡️ 3-3 last week, bringing the season totals to 14-16
The Model
As we noted last week, Louisville faced a 25% swing in their ACC Championship Game odds based on the Miami outcome. With the loss, the model has whittled down to three serious ACC title contenders.
Despite their win, SMU saw a decent decrease in their odds, mostly due to tie-breakers. Because Clemson, Miami and SMU don’t play each other this year, if all end with the same conference record, tie-breakers would determine the ACC CG contenders. Both tie-breakers (record against common opponents and opponents’ win percentage) took a hit when SMU’s best win (Lville) also lost to Miami.
Week 9 Preview
After the seven conference contests in Week 9, we’ll have reached the halfway point of conference play. If Pitt, Cuse or Duke want to insert themselves into the narrowing race for the Championship Game, they’ll need to win this week, meaning the Pitt-Cuse Thursday night matchup is a de facto elimination game.
Cuse @ Pitt
Model Favorite: Pitt (68.4%)
Vegas Line: Pitt -6
Lville @ BC
Model Favorite: Lville (67.8%)
Vegas Line: Lville -7.5
UNC @ UVA
Model Favorite: UNC (64%)
Vegas Line: UVA -4
GT @ VT
Model Favorite: VT (62.8%)
Vegas Line: VT -10.5
FSU @ Miami
Model Favorite: Miami (58.8%)
Vegas Line: Miami -21
SMU @ Duke
Model Favorite: Duke (52.4%)
Vegas Line: SMU -11.5
Wake @ Stanford
Model Favorite: Wake (62.5%)
Vegas Line: Wake -3
Unlike the first call against VT, I think the refs got this wrong and should’ve let the fumble stand
NC State had also given up 117 points through 3 ACC games (0-3), but they lowered their average in their 24-23 win over Cal
For new folks, Monte refers to my ACC model projecting who’ll win the conference, while Mo is the vibes-based “Uncle Mo” Momentum