Break out the tie breakers
Why Clemson needs another Miami L
After last week, the race for the ACC title seemed fairly simple: if SMU and Miami won out, they’d play in Charlotte. However, ghosts of Coastal Chaos haunted Miami in Atlanta, and now tie breakers could decide who plays in the championship game.
The point of having a simulation model is to understand the odds — and implications — of seemingly unlikely outcomes. With Clemson and Miami taking unexpected1 losses in back-to-back weeks, the lesson is that we shouldn’t just pencil SMU into the title game. Today, I give an early look into the potential tie breakers that could decide ACC title game (and CFP) participation.
The details are below, but the takeaway is that Clemson is still on the outside looking in and needs another Miami loss to make the ACC title game2.
ACC Title Game Tie Breakers
This weekend showed that Coastal Chaos won’t quit, even if the ACC no longer uses divisions. Without divisions and the relatively simple process of division winners facing off in the title game, tie breakers have entered the equation to determine who’ll compete.
If two teams are tied3:
Head-to-head record (not applicable at the moment)
Record against common opponents
Win-percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win-percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish.
Combined win percentage of conference opponents.
If three teams are tied4:
Combined head-to-head win percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents (not applicable at the moment)
Win-percentage versus all common opponents.
Win-percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win-percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish.
Combined win percentage of conference opponents.
With no head-to-head games between SMU, Clemson and Miami, we fall back to the other tie breakers. SMU still has a simple win-and-in path.
If all three teams win out, SMU will play Miami because of Clemson’s loss to Louisville.
If SMU takes a loss and the others win out, SMU and Miami would still play in Charlotte because of that pesky Louisville loss for Clemson.
With Miami (and SMU) owning the tie breakers over Clemson, the Tigers need (at least) another Miami loss to make the ACC title game.
If both Clemson and Miami take another loss, Louisville rises from the ashes and has a real chance5 of going to Charlotte.
There are certainly many other scenarios, and given the surprising results of the past weeks, we shouldn’t dismiss them out of hand. But I’ll cross those bridges when we come to them.
Monte vs Mo
The Vibes
Once again, Uncle Mo6 didn’t forget about the other games despite all the attention paid to the title race.
Pitt: 🔽 The hope that came with an undefeated season and CFP ranking have been dashed the past two weeks. Had Pitt won, they would’ve stayed in the One Loss Club with Clemson and Miami, with the chance to eliminate Clemson in their head-to-head game. And Pitt currently has a slight edge in the tie breakers vs Miami, so there was a shot at an SMU-Pitt rematch in the title game. Not anymore
Georgia Tech: 🔼 The Jackets’ first top-10 win against a Florida-based ACC opponent lost all of its luster once we realized FSU was a train wreck. So the Jackets decided to earn another and add some intrigue to the ACC title race
Miami: 🔽 Last week, I said “no hole seems too big for Cam Ward to dig out of,” but a 12-point deficit against GT was indeed too big. Their D got gashed for 271 rushing yards by an offense using a QB platoon. The Canes’ odds to make the CFP took a hit, but there are serious questions of whether Miami could compete with some of the juggernauts even if they make it
FSU: 🔽 Their ACC season is over, but the embarrassments continued with a 52-3 loss to Notre Dame. Mike Norvell has started the process of cleaning house
Duke: 🔼 Duke had lost three of their last four before the win over NC State
Cal: 🔼 Congrats on your first ACC win, Golden Bears! There will be no winless ACC teams this year
Pass Yards: 🔽 Three teams (BC, GT, FSU) were held to under 100 passing yards. Despite eschewing the offensive innovation of the forward pass, those three went 2-1 this week7
Home Teams: 🔽 After sneaking close to 0.500 for the season, a 2-5 week dropped home teams to 23-27 for the season. So much for home field advantage
The Model
As the tie breakers show, SMU and Miami remain the most likely teams in the title game. Clemson has a real path, and Lville could make a surprise appearance with some more losses at the top of the standings.
Week 12 Preview
Clemson closes out their ACC schedule and SMU continues their win-and-in march.
Clemson @ Pitt
Model Favorite: Clemson (67.7%)
Vegas Line: Clemson -10
Syracuse @ Cal
Model Favorite: Cal (65.1%)
Vegas Line: Cal -8.5
BC @ SMU
Model Favorite: SMU (83.2%)
Vegas Line: SMU -17
Lville @ Stanford
Model Favorite: Lville (82.3%)
Vegas Line: Lville -20.5
Wake @ UNC
Model Favorite: UNC (73.8%)
Vegas Line: UNC -11.5
Appendix — All the Tie Breaker Charts
Should Lville, Clemson and Miami all end with three losses, Lville would get in based on having the best opponent win percentage in the league. Miami, Clemson and SMU are all near the bottom of the league, and the final weeks could reorder those teams.
SMU owns the tie breaker over Clemson
An SMU-Miami standalone tie breaker would be moot because both would make the ACC title game.
SMU still has three ACC games remaining.
Both were double-digit favorites
Or two SMU losses in their final three games
There are other, more obscure ones, but those shouldn’t factor in at the moment. I’ll cover them should be find ourselves in a mega tie
There are other, more obscure ones, but those shouldn’t factor in at the moment. I’ll cover them should be find ourselves in a mega tie
Because of the win percentage of their opponents. For all the tie breaker charts, see the appendix
For new folks, Monte refers to my ACC model projecting who’ll win the conference, while Mo is the vibes-based “Uncle Mo” Momentum
GT (99 passing yards) and BC (65 passing yards, 313 (!!) rushing yards) won, while FSU (88 passing yards) got demolished