And then there were two
Miami and SMU separate in the race for the ACC title game
In last week’s midseason report, I noted the five teams with realistic paths to the ACC title game. Losses by Clemson, Pitt and VT have whittled the number down to two. While still mathematically alive, those teams will need help from Miami and SMU’s remaining opponents to edge back into the race.
Louisville upsets Clemson. When I noted Clemson’s tough “road” to the title game, I was not-so-subtly referring to their trips to Blacksburg and Pittsburg to close the season, glossing over Clemson’s home game. Louisville — a favorite in the model’s preseason projections — had fallen off after losses to SMU and Miami but now pulled off the most impressive win of the ACC season. Clemson had zero turnovers and out-gained Lville 450 to 366, but a blocked FG that helped Lville score before halftime and a second missed FG were enough to prevent them from translating those yards to points.
SMU throttles Pitt. In a de facto elimination game between two surprising undefeated (in conference) teams, SMU pressed both their advantages. They out-rushed Pitt by 58 yards (161 to 103) and held them to 11 points before two garbage time TDs.
Cam Ward remains unfazed. With 10 mins left in the third quarter, Duke scored to go up 28-17. In the game’s final 25 mins, Miami finished on a 36-3 tear, including 49- and 66-yard bombs from Cam Ward (5 TD passes). The Canes defense remains a weakness, but no hole seems too big for Cam Ward to dig out of.
Hokies lose in OT. Even without Kyron Drones, Tech raced to a 21-3 lead against Cuse. But Kyle McCord, LeQuint Allen and two costly fumbles ultimately stymied the Hokies’ title aspirations.
Monte vs Mo
The Model
The title race got a lot simpler. If Miami and SMU win out, they’ll meet in Charlotte. Both have winnable slates, as the combined ACC record of Miami’s remaining opponents is 8-7, while SMU faces teams with a 3-10 combined record. They’ll be heavy favorites in all their remaining games, but Clemson (10.5 point favorites against Lville) reminded us that anything can happen in the ACC.
The Vibes
Uncle Mo1 didn’t forget about the other games despite all the attention paid to the title race.
FSU: 🔽🔽🔽🔽🔽🔽🔽 That’s seven “bad vibes” arrows, as in a 1-7 ACC record for the preseason favorites, marking the Noles’ worst ever ACC season
UNC: 🔼🔼 Omarion Hampton had five total TDs and 265 total yards, singlehandedly exceeding FSU’s offensive production (11 points, 201 yards). With back-to-back wins, the Heels are 5-4 and 2-3 in the ACC, so Mack Brown has pulled the program out of its nosedive
NC State: 🔼 Miami’s 53 points were not the most of the weekend, with CJ Bailey and State hanging 59 on Stanford (and winning the official rights to the ACC’s block S logo)
Stanford: 🔽 Compared to expectations, FSU is plainly having the worst season in the ACC. However, Stanford’s point differential (-112) is worse than FSU’s (-108), and the Cardinal still have to losses (oops, games) on the schedule, so they should prove to be the worst team in the league. Welcome to the ACC
My midseason predictions: 🔽 I had Clemson winning a Miami-Clemson title game matchup, but now Clemson needs a surprise just to squeak into the game. I also foresaw the ACC getting two teams into the CFP. Should SMU win out in the regular season, they’ll have an unimpressive but generally unblemished resume that might not stack up well against the other bubble teams2. At least the Rhett Lashlee COY pick looks better after SMU crushed Pitt
Fan Behavior: 🔽 After Texas fans’ threw trash to protest a bad call against Georgia, the garbage behavior has been repeated each week, including Clemson this week. At least the fans got their comeuppance when Isaac Brown put the game to bed with a 45-yard TD run the very next play
Home Teams: ➡️ 4-2 last week, bringing the season totals to 21-22
Week 11 Preview
Cal @ Wake
Model Favorite: Wake (60.6%)
Vegas Line: Cal -7
Cuse @ BC
Model Favorite: BC (55.2%)
Vegas Line: BC -2
Clemson @ VT
Model Favorite: Clemson (53.1%)
Vegas Line: Clemson -6.5
Duke @ NC State
Model Favorite: NC State (67%)
Vegas Line: NC State -3
Miami @ GT
Model Favorite: Miami (63.9%)
Vegas Line: Miami -11
UVA @ Pitt
Model Favorite: Pitt (69.5%)
Vegas Line: Pitt -7.5
For new folks, Monte refers to my ACC model projecting who’ll win the conference, while Mo is the vibes-based “Uncle Mo” Momentum