ACC Football Midseason Report
Awards, title contenders and predictions
As I teased earlier this week, here’s a recap of the ACC football season at the midpoint of the conference race, including
Midseason Awards: Player of the Year, Coach of the Year, Surprise of the Year
Deep Dives on Title Contenders: Breaking down the paths and strengths for the five teams with legit chances
End-of-Year Predictions: ACC title winner, coaching vacancies
Midseason Awards
Player of the Year: Cam Ward, Miami
In the conversation: Cade Klubnik, Clemson
Ward was the preseason POY pick and no one has put up the numbers — or memorable moments — to match him so far. He leads the ACC in passing yards (2.7k) and passing TDs (24) and has added three rushing TDs and a receiving TD. He’s led wild comebacks against VT and Cal.
Granted, he’s paired with a leaky defense, so he needs to put up those numbers to keep Miami undefeated. If not for a record-setting running back (Ashton Jeanty) and unprecedented two-way production (Travis Hunter), Ward might be getting more Heisman buzz.
Klubnik has put up numbers, too, but trails Ward by decent margins in yards (~900), total TDs (four) and memorable moments.
Coach of the Year: Rhett Lashlee, SMU
In the conversation: Pat Narduzzi (Pitt), Fran Brown (Cuse)
Pitt and Narduzzi certainly deserve credit for exceeding expectations, but I think Lashlee is a smidge ahead for COY at the halfway point for two reasons. First, he’s coaching a team in a new conference after moving up from a mid-major. Despite the jump in competition, his team is undefeated and flirting with a title game appearance. Second, he made the courageous in-season QB switch to Kevin Jennings, which has ignited his team’s run.
Maybe this week’s Pitt-SMU elimination game will tip the scales for one coach, but Lashlee leads for now.
Surprise of the Year: FSU
In the conversation: Pitt
It’s hard to overstate how off-the-rails this FSU season has gone. Bad seasons happen, especially as coaches navigate roster turnover in the portal era. With the supposed talent on this team, even a 4-4 ACC record would have been a colossal disappointment. Instead, Mike Norvell will either tie or break his own FSU-worst of conference ineptitude (2-6 record in 2020). In his five seasons, they’ve missed more bowls (three) than played (two). The crushing disappointment of the CFP snub paired with this disaster of a season is enough to drive fans to erratic behavior (like eating poop).
To take a more positive view, Pitt is still undefeated and far surpassing their preseason expectations (picked 13th in the media poll). If they mess around and make the ACC title game, they could win Biggest Surprise claim from FSU.
ACC Title Contenders
There are five serious ACC title contenders at the halfway point, so I’ll outline each teams’s path to the title game and biggest advantage and disadvantage (relative to the others).
Clemson
Biggest Advantage: Best offense in the ACC
In conference games, Clemson has the highest scoring offense in the league. They rank second in yards per game (trailing Miami), getting it done through the air (fourth) and on the ground (second). They have a tough road to the title game, but their explosive offense gives them the edge in those game — and would give them the edge in a potential ACC title game against Miami.
Biggest Disadvantage: Roadtrips and game pressure
With five ACC wins, Clemson is a step (or two) ahead in the race to reach the title game. But two road games against other contenders is a tough end to the season, and this Clemson team hasn’t played in any high-pressure moments so far. Their closest margin in a game is 17 points, so we haven’t seen how they operate in the clutch.
Miami
Biggest Advantage: Cam Ward
While Miami’s scoring offense narrowly trails Clemson’s (41.25 ppg vs 45) in conference games, Cam Ward still leads an insanely productive offense (560 yards per game, tops in the nation). He’s bailed out Miami in multiple tight games, instilling a confidence and magic that no other team can boast.
Biggest Disadvantage: Worst defense in the ACC
Miami’s season-long defensive stats look decent, but they beat up on bad teams (17 points against vs Florida, 9 vs Florida A&M, shutout vs Ball State). Even with last week’s get-right game against the miserable FSU offense, Miami ranks last in conference games in scoring defense1. Working in their favor is an easier end to the season, though. If Haynes King is still injured, only Kyle McCord in the season finale would offer a major threat to take advantage of the soft defense and derail Miami’s perfect season.
SMU
Biggest Advantage: Game control via running and defense
SMU leads the conference in rushing yards per game and gives up the fewest rushing yards per game. That game control results in one of the stingiest defenses in the conference (20 opp ppg, ranking third).
Biggest Disadvantage: Untimely turnovers
SMU somehow overcame a 6-turnover performance against Duke. In their only loss this season (to undefeated BYU), SMU lost a fumble and threw a pick in the redzone to go along with a turnover on downs in the redzone. Kevin Jennings has made the Mustang offense more dynamic, but SMU’s game-control style falls apart if the turnovers stack up. This could be particularly damaging this week given Pitt’s defense (see below).
Pitt
Biggest Advantage: Stingy, big-play defense
This could very well be an overreaction to the five-interception, three-TD game Pitt’s defense just put together against Syracuse. Eli Holstein has certainly contributed to Pitt’s surprise undefeated start, but a stout defense (17.3 opp ppg, first in ACC) makes his life easier, and Pitt will have to lean heavily on the defense if Holstein is out this week against SMU.
Biggest Disadvantage: Five games to go
While VT is a game behind in the standings (see below), Pitt is a game back in games played, which opens the door for some good ole fashion ACC madness. Even if Pitt wins its toughest remaining games against SMU and Clemson, a slip in a remaining game could be enough to keep them out of the title game.
Virginia Tech
Biggest Advantage: Early, non-conference losses
It’s strange to say a team with three losses is at an advantage, but VT lost early and lost to the right teams (as in, not ACC teams). Starting 2-3 is ugly, but VT can still play its way into the ACC title game and a CFP birth, which seemed unfathomable after the disastrous start. VT is a case study in how a team can improve throughout the season. Of course, the Hokies have zero chance of making the CFP if they take another loss, while some of the other contending ACC teams could still play their way into the 12-team field without the ACC title auto-bid, so their losses are disqualifying in that sense.
Biggest Disadvantage: Already having a conference L
The wild loss to Miami means that Tech doesn’t control its own destiny, even with Clemson visiting Blacksburg on Nov 9. With a win over Clemson, VT could still be left out of the title game if two of Miami, SMU and Pitt remain undefeated. It’s a bit premature to delve into the wild world of tie-breakers should multiple teams end up with one loss, but VT is playing from behind.
End-of-Year Predictions
ACC Champ Prediction: Clemson over Miami
This isn’t exactly going out on a limb considering these were two of the three preseason favorites and both are currently ranked in the top 10. I see Miami cruising to the title game undefeated. Clemson has a tougher path, but I think they can make the title game even with a loss given how all the other games and tie-breakers will shake out.
In a Miami-Clemson showdown, the most likely outcome is a shootout, and I think Clemson’s defense has a better chance of making just enough stops.
CFP Prediction: The ACC will send two teams
The most likely ACC Championship Game matchup is Clemson-Miami. If both win out before the title game tilt, both should feel safe about making the 12-team playoff.
A two-loss Clemson would be a bit bubbly, but losses to Georgia and Miami sandwiching 12 wins should be enough. The SEC could safely send two at-large teams, the Big Ten could send another two.
That leaves three at-large spots for five teams: i) Clemson, ii) Notre Dame, iii) the fourth-best SEC team2, iv) the fourth-best Big Ten team3, v) the second-best Big 12 team4. Given the lack of depth in the Big 12 and the losses accumulated in the SEC and B10, I’d expect Clemson to be safely in.
SMU doesn’t have any signature wins at the moment, and this week’s game against Pitt is the only resume builder on the schedule. But if SMU makes it to the title game and loses, two losses to the ACC champ and BYU could be competitive for an at-large.
Offseason Prediction: At least 2 coaching vacancies
I feel confident that Mack Brown will retire/resign/step down/take a front office role, as he floated after the JMU disaster. I’m guessing there will be a second vacancy, although I’m less sure where it will be.
I’m penciling in Wake and Dave Clawson. They’ve recently leveled up their game to Painfully Mediocre (4-4, 2-2 in ACC), but they have some losable games to end the season,. He’s also 67-65 lifetime at Wake, so I think we’ve seen enough evidence to know Wake could use a change of direction.
Only two vacancies could be pretty good for a 17-team league, but there will be plenty of coaches on the hot seat in 2025:
Dave Doeren has a $15.7M buyout and signed a five-year extension this spring, both of which imply this job is probably safe. But will Pack patience with 6-to-8 wins wear out eventually?
Norvell’s CFP-contending is starting to look like the exception rather than the rule. FSU currently has the sixth-ranked recruiting class in the ACC, so it’s not like axing Norvell will disrupt a great pipeline. Like Doeren, Norvell inked an extension earlier this year, but he’s clearly not living up to the near-$10M annual price tag. His current buyout ($65M) is prohibitive, though.
Stanford and Cal have had rough seasons but their coaching staffs are early in their tenures. Brent Pry’s seat has cooled as the early-season losses fade from our memories. I don’t see any of those getting the boot this offseason, but they’ll be in Prove It years next season
Current ACC Standings
Here are the current ACC standings, along with the preseason media and model rankings. There’s still plenty of football to shake up the standings, but the most stark trend has been three teams projected to be in the top half of the league (FSU, NC State and UNC) combining for a 3-12 league record.
Meaning Miami’s defense is even worse than UNC’s porous unit
Texas A&M, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, LSU and Bama are the top 6 currently, and there are several head-to-heads within that group
Indiana, Oregon, Penn St, Ohio St are the top 4 currently. Ohio St and Penn St play this weekend, and Indiana and Ohio St play later this season
Currently 7-0 Iowa St