The parallel regression of RJ Davis and Caleb Love
The Super Seniors are playing like their younger selves
When RJ Davis and Caleb Love committed to UNC, the Fates decided their basketball careers would be inextricably linked, following parallel career arcs: highly touted freshmen1 team up in the backcourt for a blue blood and struggle their first year; they make up two of the Iron 5, shooting their way to a remarkable Final Four run and ending a legendary coaching career; they follow up that success by missing the tournament the next season, with their reported love triangle2 causing locker room issues; Caleb transfers to Arizona, freeing both to ascend to conference player of the year and All-American honors (although both flame out in the tourney).
Now in their fifth years, the uncanny parallels continue, but the star trajectories have inflected: both are playing with the (in)efficiency of their younger selves but at the leading-scorer volumes they established last year. And their teams — ranked 9th and 10th in the preseason — are struggling, too, with a combined 9-8 record3.
The efficiency/volume reversion is painfully clear when plotting the effective field goal percentage (eFG%) — which gives an added bonus for 3 pointers4 — and shots per game.
RJ is shooting a touch worse than his freshman year (41.2% eFG) but at more than twice the number of shots freshman year. Compared to his ACC POY campaign, he’s taking about as many shots, but with many, many more misses.
If you traced a line between RJ’s early seasons, his trajectory shows increased efficiency in each year while taking more shots each year, a remarkable story of development. That growth makes this year’s massive regression all the more puzzling — and frustrating. It was unlikely RJ could improve much on his awesome season, and even a return to his sophomore- or junior-year shooting numbers would be survivable for the Tar Heels’ talented backcourt. Instead, he’s slipped back to his freshman self.
Caleb’s efficiency and volume stats this year are almost identical to his sophomore year in 2022. To his credit, Caleb has always been a chucker, taking 14 to 15 shots per game the last four seasons. Compared to RJ’s incremental year-over-year improvements, Caleb made a leap his sophomore year, took a mini step back5 his junior year, then broke through last year (50.3% eFG).
His slide this year isn’t as stark as RJ’s, and anyone who’s endured the Caleb Love Experience knows not to expect efficiency. Still, last year felt like he might’ve been fulfilling his inescapable and mesmerizing talent, but this year feels more like the same old Caleb.
While their victory laps haven’t been very victorious, another form of regression could bolster the final stretches of their college careers: regression to the mean. The narrative their freshmen year was that they had potential, so fans just needed to stick with them. In the years since, both have proven that potential, so we know the ability exists. Last year, the duo might’ve been playing at the top end of their abilities, but they’re playing at the bottom end of those talents this year. Their true baselines are somewhere in the middle, so both should improve their shooting numbers and pull their teams out of mediocrity.
Pun intended
Carolina is 5-4 and Arizona is 4-4, with both playing tonight
The formula is: (1.5 * 3FGM + 2FGM) / Total FGA
Given this in Caleb we’re talking about, that step back was actually a step-back jumper