The ACC is Duke's to lose
Introducing the ACC basketball projection model
We’re roughly halfway through the ACC basketball regular season. By nearly every measure (AP ranking, NET ratings, the eye test), there’s a yawning gap between Duke and the rest of the ACC. The lone exception is the ACC standings, where a few challengers still appear within shouting distance of the Blue Devils, with Clemson and Louisville only one loss back of the undefeated Blue Devils.
Today, I’m debuting the projection model for the ACC regular season and tournament champions, similar to the model I used throughout the football season. And it confirms what we all know: Duke is the prohibitive favorite to win the ACC regular season title and the ACC tournament.
In the preseason, both the model and betting markets1 gave Duke ~25% chance of winning the regular season title. Now at 10-0 in conference play and ranked third in the NET ratings, Duke’s odds have shot up to 60.7% to win the regular season. For as good as the Blue Devils looked, the rest of the ACC (particularly UNC) has also taken a step back, resulting in the Blue Devil’s stranglehold on the title race.
Preseason Projections Gone Awry
In a separate post, I detail the current (and dismal) state of the ACC more qualitatively, while this post details the quantitative odds of the 2025 basketball banners to come.
Preseason projections are always a moving target, especially in today’s portal and NIL era. Take two pairs of teams to illustrate the point: Duke and Carolina and Clemson and NC State.
Duke lost a ton of talent from last year’s Elite 8 team but reloaded with another wildly hyped recruit in Cooper Flagg. UNC had key departures, as well, but retained more of its core in RJ Davis and Elliot Cadeau, and also added some talented freshmen. Both seemed poised to contend for the ACC title.
So far, Duke looks like a number one seed and terrifying national contender, while UNC is squarely on the bubble.
Following NC State’s magical Final Four run, the Pack also lost most of their core (particularly DJ Horne and DJ Burns). Clemson matched its deepest run in school history last year and had leading man PJ Hall move on. Clemson has followed up its run as one of the top teams in the ACC, while NC State is near the bottom of the league.
As we’ve learned more about the unknowns of the preseason, the ACC title race has clarified: it’s Duke’s to lose.
That being said, Clemson and Louisville (both 9-1 in ACC play) are only a game back. Louisville’s lone loss came against Duke, so they’d need plenty of help to jump the Devils. However, Clemson hosts Duke on Feb. 8 for an opportunity to vault into the lead position, so the Tigers have a path to the title.
The super soft bottom and middle of the ACC means these three decent teams will be favored in all their games moving forward.
ACC Tournament Madness
Apart from school pride and stitchings on a new banner, ACC regular season titles don’t count for much. The all-important automatic bid from the ACC tournament would matter a lot to one of the many ACC teams lingering on the March Madness bubble, or give life to an out-of-nowhere run like NC State last year.
Currently, Duke is the model’s clear favorite for the ACCT, too, with a 40% projection to cut down the nets in Charlotte. However, the big drop between Duke’s regular season odds (60%) and ACCT odds (40%) is another example of the randomness that happens in a tournament bracket, where the best team doesn’t always win.
Wake Forest figures to be the main beneficiary of the ACCT’s randomness, with 13.4% odds of winning the auto bid. After falling short in Saturday’s upset attempt vs Duke and getting crushed by Louisville yesterday, the Deac’s regular season odds fell to 1.4%, but they can still help seal their NCAA tournament fate with a run in Charlotte. However, with Tuesday’s loss at Louisville, Wake’s grasp on the 4th seed (and double-bye in the ACCT) loosened. With a NET rating of 71, Wake will likely need the auto bid to make their first March Madness appearance since 2017.
Preseason odds from Vegas Insider