Are FSU's ACC title hopes dead?
Not entirely, but they're on life support
This football season, I plan to have weekly posts1 that i) recap any ACC action that impacts the projections for who will win league and ii) offer a quick preview for the weekend’s upcoming games. Florida State’s second ACC loss to open the season — before anyone else has even played a conference game — made this an emergency posting.
My ACC projection model gave FSU a 5.4% chance to open 0-2, yet here are. If there’s one sliver of hope for FSU, it’s that they still have about a 4% chance to turn their season around and win the ACC. If the start to the season proves anything, it’s that unlikely outcomes can and do happen.
Monte vs Mo
The Model
The ACC model provides a dispassionate, numbers-based projection of who will win the conference (using, in part, Monte Carlo simulation). However, so much of the fun of college football is overreacting to the weekly swings — in other words, “Uncle Mo” momentum. Each week, I’ll compare the opinions of data-informed Monte against the vibes-based Mo.
Only FSU (2), GT (1) and BC (1) have played conference games, so we’ve learned very little about how the conference race will shape up. However, the presumptive favorite starting 0-2 means we’ve learned enough: FSU’s odds have dropped from 18.9% in the preseason to 4.2%.
Math-wise, there’s still narrow a path for the Noles to win the conference. But the more likely outcome is a middle-of-the-pack finish, as the Noles average 3.9 conference wins and 8th place in the projections.
The few precedents of top 10 teams starting 0-2 (including another FSU team) also portend a mediocre season more than a miraculous turnaround.
FSU (2017): 7-6 overall, 3-5 in ACC
Penn State (2020): 4-5 overall, 4-5 in Big 10
Notre Dame (2022): 9-4 overall
An unfeeling model is protected from the emotional swings that we’ll talk about next with Uncle Mo, but it also misses the human side that’s precipitated FSU’s 0-2 start:
Will FSU continue to be dominated in the trenches despite its highly rated talent?
Is DJ Uiagalelei’s confidence shot? Is the team’s confidence in DJ U shot?
Will the team quit if they stack up another conference loss?
For all these reasons, FSU’s ACC title hopes feel even longer than the measly 4%.
The Vibes
The conference season offers a fresh start for teams, a clean slate regardless of the successes or struggles of non-conference play. So far, the slate of non-conference games cast the top of the ACC in a dim light, even without FSU. Here are Uncle Mo’s reactions to the main contenders for the ACC:
Clemson: 🔽 UGA smushed the Tigers. Save for a handful of title contenders, most teams would suffer the same – or worse – outcome against the Dawgs. But most teams don’t have Clemson’s pedigree and expectations, so Clemson would have to show major improvement to be considered a serious contender in the CFP
Miami: 🔼🔼 The Canes dismantled Florida and Uncle Mo is high on the U, while Monte remains unconvinced. In a vacuum, Miami would be trending up, but Miami hype is skyrocketing relative to the other lackluster performances across the ACC
Louisville: 🔼 The model is very high on Lville, especially after FSU’s losses. Normally, destroying a cupcake isn’t worth much, but a big win is more than other teams listed here can say.
NC State: 🔽 The Pack pulled away late but were trailing FCS Western Carolina after three quarters. Yikes. Grayson McCall was shaky, and the stout defense of past seasons gave up 21 points. Not the ideal tune-up heading to a game at Tennessee.
VT: 🔽 There’s usually no shame in losing a road game to an SEC school, but this was Vanderbilt, who was picked to finish last in the SEC. Certainly a stumble out of the gates for the dark horse ACC pick
FSU: 🔽🔽🔽 Read everything above
Week 2 Preview
There are two conference games on tap for Week 2. GT has been riding a high since their Dublin win, and the model favors them to start 2-0.
GT @ Syracuse
Model Favorite: GT (62%)
Vegas Line: GT -3.5
UVA @ Wake
Model Favorite: Wake (69%)
Vegas Line: Wake -2.5
In addition to some of the usual content not directly tied to the outcomes of games