ACC: Conference of (Injured / Benched) QBs
And updating the ACC title race
With two weeks left in the ACC regular season, there are three teams in contention for the ACC title game, and four games will decide the participants.
With Louisville’s collapse at Stanford and Clemson dashing Pitt’s comeback, Lville and Pitt are mathematically eliminated, meaning two of SMU, Miami and Clemson will meet in Charlotte.
As noted last week, Clemson would lose tie breakers to both Miami and SMU, so Clemson needs another Miami loss to earn a championship bid. Should the current standings hold, this would be the fourth time1 a one-loss ACC team would be kept out of the title game.
ACC: Conference of (Injured / Benched) QBs
In Week 2, I lampooned the ACC’s self-anointed “Conference of Quarterbacks” title:
In one of the ACC’s preseason posts, the conference touted itself as “the Conference of Quarterbacks,” bolstered by a class of returning starters (Cade Klubnik, Kyron Drones, Haynes King, Thomas Castellanos, Preston Stone) and notable transfers (Cam Ward, DJ Uiagalelei, Grayson McCall, Kyle McCord). So far, the conference’s self-proclamation only rings true if you insert “inconsistent” into the moniker.
In the ten weeks since, quarterback play in the ACC hasn’t fared much better, especially for most of the individuals named in the post. While there are notable bright spots, ACC QB play certainly doesn’t feel like the nation’s best.
The Good
Cam Ward leads the country in passing yards and passing TDs and is a legit Heisman contender. Kyle McCord is second in the country in passing yards (but is also tied for second with 12 INTs). Cade Klubnik has also been prolific, ranking fourth in TD passes to go along with a few electric runs (like the game winner vs Pitt).
Those three headline a group of only seven2 ACC QBs that have started all year, but not even the consistent starters have been stellar. Maalik Murphy (22 TD-8 INT) and Tyler Shough (21-6) have been solid. Cal’s Fernando Mendoza (13 TD-6 INT) has struggled, and UVA’s Anthony Colandrea (12-11) has been inconsistent enough that he might find himself on the “benched” list soon.
The Bad (and Injured)
Many of the ACC’s notable preseason QBs are injured or benched. DJ U was dismal before injuring his thumb, and his backups haven’t been any better. Grayson McCall retired after his terrifying injury. UNC lost Max Johnson for the season in their opening game.
Drones and King have been productive when healthy, but both have missed time during their teams’ mediocre seasons. Eli Holstein’s injuries have helped precipitate Pitt’s three-game skid.
Castellanos left the BC program after his recent benching, and Stone has had to watch Kevin Jennings spark SMU’s dark horse ACC run.
Given portal uncertainty, it’s too early to look ahead to next year. But the ACC might try to run back the QB title given that Holstein, CJ Bailey, Jennings and Murphy could all build on the promise of this season. However, this season should serve as an example that a few gunslingers at the top of the conference don’t merit an entire “conference of” label.
Monte vs Mo
The Vibes
Clemson: 🔼 A 7-1 ACC record is something to be proud of, but it might not be enough to break into the ACC and CFP hunt
Pitt: 🔽🔽🔽 Pitt clawed back from a 17-7 deficit to take a late lead, only to have Cade Klubnik sprint for a 50-yard TD. A third straight loss has dropped Pitt to the middle of the ACC standings
UNC: 🔼🔼🔼 UNC is also in the middle of the ACC standings but are the anti-Pitt, winning three straight
Lville: 🔽 With Clemson’s win, Lville would’ve needed a mini miracle to make the ACC title game. Instead, they took matters into their own hands, losing (and getting trolled) by Stanford
Home Teams: 🔽 With a 26-29 record so far, home teams need to go 8-5 in the remaining games to eke out a 0.500 home record
The Model
As noted in the opening, we’re mathematically down to three contenders. Clemson — having completed a 7-1 ACC record — has a slight edge over Miami in the model simply because of the model’s probabilistic nature. Even as heavy favorites in the remaining two games, Miami faces a ~50% chance of losing one of the them, while there’s a 0% chance Clemson takes another loss.
But remember that Miami holds the common-opponent tie breaker over Clemson, so Clemson needs another Miami L (or two SMU Ls) to make the title game.
Miami and SMU’s remaining games will decide the championship matchup.
Week 12 Preview
In addition to SMU and Miami working toward the title game, we have the Big Game and four teams (UVA, VT, NC State, BC) looking to become bowl eligible.
NC State @ GT
Model Favorite: GT (50.3%)
Vegas Line: GT -8.5
UNC @ BC
Model Favorite: UNC (62.8%)
Vegas Line: UNC -3
Stanford @ Cal
Model Favorite: Cal (69.3%)
Vegas Line: Cal -14.5
VT @ Duke
Model Favorite: Duke (57.7%)
Vegas Line: VT -3.5
Pitt @ Lville
Model Favorite: Lville (77.1%)
Vegas Line: Lville -8
Wake @ Miami
Model Favorite: Miami (79%)
Vegas Line: Miami -24
SMU @ UVA
Model Favorite: SMU (77.2%)
Vegas Line: SMU -9.5
2012 Clemson, 2013 Clemson and 2016 Lville
Here are the QB tiers
Same Starter
Clemson, Miami, Lville, UVA, Cuse, Cal, Duke
New Starter, Injury:
FSU, UNC, NC State, Pitt, GT, VT, Stanford, Wake (Bachmeier sat the second half against UNC)
New Starter, Benching:
FSU, SMU, UNC, BC