The ACC's struggles at home
And the team that needs a Week 7 home win
College football teams typical win about 64% of their home games. So far this ACC season, home teams have won less than half of the time (11 of 24, 46%). A few overrated teams are contributing more than their fair share of losses, as FSU (1-2 at home in ACC games), NC State (0-2) and UNC (0-2) total six of the 13 home losses. Louisville lost their home opener and needs a crucial home win this week to keep their Championship Game hopes alive.
Monte vs Mo
A few weeks into conference play, we’re is starting to see a clear separation between the contenders and bottom-dwellers. Starting with Uncle Mo1:
The Vibes
Clemson: 🔼🔼 The Week 1 embarrassment against UGA feels like a lifetime ago, as the Tigers are rolling folks
Pitt: 🔼🔼 Pitt is 6-0 first the first time since 1982 and is keeping pace in the ACC race. They’ve got a bye before playing games against other teams atop the conference standings (Cuse, SMU, Clemson)
Cuse: 🔼 The Orange beat NC State on the road. After their bye week, they can keep making noise with a Thursday night game vs Pitt
UVA: 🔽 The model never bought into UVA being a serious contender, but the vibes took a hit with the Hoos’ first ACC loss
Cal: 🔽🔽 Cal has lost its three ACC games by a combined 8 points. Nonetheless, they’re one of the three winless ACC teams
NC State: 🔽🔽🔽 State joins Cal as a winless ACC team after another home L
UNC: 🔽🔽🔽 UNC is the final winless ACC team, but the biggest emotional hit was the death of Tylee Craft after a fight with cancer
The Model
There wasn’t too much movement in the model this week, as the betting favorites won all of the Week 6 conference matchups. With each week, the model is coalescing toward a four-team race for the ACC title (although the math is still sleeping on Pitt and Cuse, as we discussed last week).
This week’s Lville-Miami matchup could narrow the list of contenders if Lville can’t pull off the upset at home. After their earlier loss to SMU, a second ACC loss would give them a lot of ground to make up. Even with a win, they’re not certain of an ACC Championship Game berth (28.8%). The ~25% swing in their odds between a win and loss makes this the highest leverage game of the young ACC season.
Week 8 Preview
The home team is favored in four of the six games, so ACC home teams could finish the week right at 50% if all the favorites win. There’s not much intrigue apart from the high-leverage Lville-Miami game, as four games have spreads of at least one touchdown.
BC @ VT
Model Favorite: VT (72.8%)
Vegas Line: VT -7
FSU @ Duke
Model Favorite: Duke (51.4%)
Vegas Line: Duke -4
Miami @ Lville
Model Favorite: Lville (60.2%)
Vegas Line: Miami -4
UVA @ Clemson
Model Favorite: Clemson (88.6%)
Vegas Line: Clemson -21.5
NC State @ Cal
Model Favorite: NC State (66.4%)
Vegas Line: Cal -10.5
SMU @ Stanford
Model Favorite: SMU (81%)
Vegas Line: SMU -14.5
For new folks, Monte refers to my ACC model projecting who’ll win the conference, while Mo is the vibes-based “Uncle Mo” Momentum