Sweet 16 Preview: UNC (1) vs Alabama (4)
Elliot Cadeau has to play on his terms
On paper, the matchup figures to be a track meet. But the defining characteristic of this Heels team is its defense, and Bama is coming off another on-paper track meet that turned into a wrestling match.
Defining Matchup: Mark Sears vs Elliot Cadeau
How Hubert Davis navigates his backcourt minutes could decide the game.
When Bama has the ball, I expect the Heels to throw Cadeau’s quickness, Cormac Ryan’s peskiness and Seth Trimble’s straps at Sears. But Bama will counter by running endless pick-and-rolls. This season, Armando Bacot has shown time and again that he can stay in front and swat shots when switched onto guards. Sears is only 6’1” but is effective at finishing and drawing fouls, shooting 6.6 free throws per game. He could put pressure on EC and Mando and draw them in early foul trouble.
When the Hells have the ball, Elliot Cadeau’s confidence and shot selection will dictate Carolina’s offense. He has only 6 points across Carolina’s two tournament games, including a round 1 goose egg. Michigan State sagged off Cadeau, daring him to shoot. He went 0-4 on threes, earning himself a few stints on the bench. But when he returned with 7 minutes left in 2H, he drove directly to the rim for a layup.
The Heels are at their best when Cadeau is slicing in the lane, hitting his hanging-in-the-air layups or lasering passes for easy buckets. It’s no secret he struggles with jumpers, and teams have been sagging off all season. But Cadeau needs to play on his terms, not letting the opponent bait him into shots. Against Duke, the Heels countered by using EC as an off-ball screener, lengthening the close-out to shooters. EC must be willing to play the chess game or just put his head down and drive.
Even if EC is at his best, Sears could be disruptive. Sears isn’t just a flame-thrower on offense, he’s a legit two-way player.
Trimble will log significant minutes because of his defense. He helped cool off Tyson Walker following his hot start. A wide-open, athlete-forward game is the perfect fit for Trimble’s explosive drives and corner 3s, so Trimble’s defense-for-offense trade could be diminished. But the Carolina offense needs to be humming to keep up with the Tide, so any minutes without Cadeau’s creativity could put more pressure on RJ Davis.
Turnovers, cold shooting and foul trouble can sink any team. Whether EC is on the bench because of his propensity to foul or his own shot selection, the Heels are more likely to suffer from those calamities if he’s not on the floor.
Stat Nugget: 31.7% Opp. 3FG vs 36.5% 3FG
Of the past five seasons, this Carolina team is decidedly the best at limiting opponents’ three-point percentage, holding teams to 31.7%. That’s decent nationally, ranking 68th. In past years, Carolina has ranked in the 200s three times. The Heels tended to over-help on drives, leaving open kick-outs.
Over-helping on drives is painful against any team but absolutely lethal against an Alabama team that shoots 36.5% on 28.5 3FGA per game.
Prediction: Carolina
This is more of a hope than a prediction. It feels more likely that Carolina’s D can slow down Bama’s O than the reverse. The Michigan St game showed the two sides of Carolina’s defense. More than half — 35 of 69 — of MSU’s point came in three sprints totaling 8 minutes. The rest of the game showcased Carolina’s stout D. But Bama has more firepower than Sparty, so the good Carolina D better limit runs and show up for the majority of the game.
